<!DOCTYPE article
PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.4 20190208//EN"
       "JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.4" xml:lang="en">
 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Proceedings of Petersburg Transport University</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Proceedings of Petersburg Transport University</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Известия Петербургского университета путей сообщения</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="print">1815-588X</issn>
   <issn publication-format="online">2658-6851</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">81003</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20295/1815-588X-2024-01-199-216</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Проблематика транспортных систем</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>PROBLEMATIC OF TRANSPORT SYSTEM</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Проблематика транспортных систем</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Construction of short-term forecast of the number of railcars  at the stations and non-public routes. Results and analysis</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Построение краткосрочного прогноза количества вагонов  на станции и путях необщего пользования</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Ламехов</surname>
       <given-names>Владимир Андреевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Lamehov</surname>
       <given-names>Vladimir Andreevich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Коровяковский</surname>
       <given-names>Евгений Константинович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Korovyakovskiy</surname>
       <given-names>Evgeny Konstantinovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>кандидат технических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>candidate of technical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Петербургский государственный университет путей сообщения Императора Александра I</institution>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University</institution>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Петербургский государственный университет путей сообщения Императора Александра I</institution>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Emperor Alexander I Petersburg State Transport University</institution>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2024-03-29T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>29</day>
    <month>03</month>
    <year>2024</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2024-03-29T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>29</day>
    <month>03</month>
    <year>2024</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>21</volume>
   <issue>1</issue>
   <fpage>199</fpage>
   <lpage>216</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2024-03-28T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>28</day>
     <month>03</month>
     <year>2024</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://itt-pgups.ru/en/nauka/article/81003/view">https://itt-pgups.ru/en/nauka/article/81003/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Цель: провести анализ исходных данных, определить пропуски и выбросы в данных, разделить  данные на временные интервалы, вычислить коэффициенты корреляции, частичной автокорреляции,  кросс-­корреляции, проанализировать тренд и сезонность полученных временных рядов. Используя  авторегрессионные модели, модели машинного обучения, нейронечеткие модели, построить прогнозы временного ряда и определить качество полученных прогнозов. Методы: плотность точек, автокорреляция, частичная автокорреляция, кросс-­корреляция, тест Фостера — Стюарта, тест Дикки — Фуллера, ARMA, SARMA, MLP, Encoder-­Decoder LTSM, TSK, Fuzzy-­Partitions, SCRG, Transformers.  Результаты: получены оценки точности прогнозов выбранных моделей, сопоставлены результаты  работы прогнозных моделей обученных на разных выборках исходных данных. Сделаны выводы  об эффективности использования исследуемых прогнозных моделей. Практическая значимость: исследована способность выбранных моделей к построению краткосрочных прогнозов количества  вагонов на станции, проанализированы факторы, влияющие на точность получаемых прогнозов.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>Objective: collect raw data for building predictive models. Analyze the initial data, identify data outliers  and outliers, divide the data into time intervals, calculate correlation coefficients, partial autocorrelation,  cross-correlation, analyze the trend and seasonality of the obtained time series. Using autoregressive models,  machine learning models, neuro-fuzzy models to build forecasts of time series and determine the quality of  the obtained forecasts. Methods: point density, autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, cross-correlation,  Foster-Stewart test, Dickey-Fuller test, ARMA, MLP, Encoder-Decoder LTSM, TSK, Fuzzy-Partitions,  SCRG, Transformers. Results: we obtained estimates of the prediction accuracy of the selected models,  compared the results of the predictive models trained on different samples of initial data. Conclusions  are made about the efficiency and methods of building predictive models. Practical significance: the &#13;
 significance of building accurate predictive models for the key quantitative indicators of stations and nonpublic routes operation is shown. The factors influencing the accuracy of the obtained forecasts are analyzed.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>нечеткие нейронные сети</kwd>
    <kwd>нейронные сети</kwd>
    <kwd>авторегрессионные модели</kwd>
    <kwd>анализ  работы станции</kwd>
    <kwd>прогнозирование</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>fuzzy neural networks</kwd>
    <kwd>neural networks</kwd>
    <kwd>autoregressive models</kwd>
    <kwd>railway station performance  analysis</kwd>
    <kwd>forecasting</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p></p>
 </body>
 <back>
  <ref-list>
   <ref id="B1">
    <label>1.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ламехов В. А. Алгоритм построения прогнозной модели транспортно-­логистической деятельности на основе применения нечетких нейронных сетей / В. А. Ламехов, Е.К. Коровяковский // Бюллетень  результатов научных исследований. 2022. №3. С. 137– 150. DOI: 10.20295/2223-9987-2022-3-137-150.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Lamehov V. A. Algoritm postroeniya prognoznoy modeli transportno-­logisticheskoy deyatel'nosti na osnove primeneniya nechetkih neyronnyh setey / V. A. Lamehov, E.K. Korovyakovskiy // Byulleten'  rezul'tatov nauchnyh issledovaniy. 2022. №3. S. 137– 150. DOI: 10.20295/2223-9987-2022-3-137-150.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B2">
    <label>2.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Свидетельство о государственной регистрации  программы для ЭВМ № 2022684797 Российская Федерация. Программа автоматизированного определения количества нечетких правил и параметров антецедентов и консеквентов нечетких нейронных сетей  типа TSK: № 2022684298: заявл. 07.12.2022: опубл. 19.12.2022 / В. А. Ламехов; заявитель Федеральное  государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Петербургский государственный университет путей сообщения Императора  Александра I».</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Svidetel'stvo o gosudarstvennoy registracii  programmy dlya EVM № 2022684797 Rossiyskaya Federaciya. Programma avtomatizirovannogo opredeleniya kolichestva nechetkih pravil i parametrov antecedentov i konsekventov nechetkih neyronnyh setey  tipa TSK: № 2022684298: zayavl. 07.12.2022: opubl. 19.12.2022 / V. A. Lamehov; zayavitel' Federal'noe  gosudarstvennoe byudzhetnoe obrazovatel'noe uchrezhdenie vysshego obrazovaniya «Peterburgskiy gosudatvennyy universitet putey soobscheniya Imperatora  Aleksandra I».</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B3">
    <label>3.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Dolgopolov P., Konstantinov D., Rybalchenko L., et al. Optimization of train routes based on neuro-­fuzzy  modeling and genetic algorithms. Procedia Comput Sci,  2019. 149, 11–18. DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.01.101.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Dolgopolov P., Konstantinov D., Rybalchenko L., et al. Optimization of train routes based on neuro-­fuzzy  modeling and genetic algorithms. Procedia Comput Sci,  2019. 149, 11–18. DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.01.101.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B4">
    <label>4.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ermakova A. V. Application of fuzzy mathematics for choosing maintenance intervals for non-public  railway tracks / A. V. Ermakova // Nexo Revista Científica. 2021. Vol. 34, no. 6. P. 1885–1891. DOI: 10.5377/ nexo.v34i06.13194. EDN DBYXRY.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ermakova A. V. Application of fuzzy mathematics for choosing maintenance intervals for non-public  railway tracks / A. V. Ermakova // Nexo Revista Científica. 2021. Vol. 34, no. 6. P. 1885–1891. DOI: 10.5377/ nexo.v34i06.13194. EDN DBYXRY.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B5">
    <label>5.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Makridakis S., Spiliotis E., Assimakopoulos V.  Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods :  Concerns and ways forward. PLoS ONE, 2018. 13 (3) :  e0194889. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194889.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Makridakis S., Spiliotis E., Assimakopoulos V.  Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods :  Concerns and ways forward. PLoS ONE, 2018. 13 (3) :  e0194889. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194889.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B6">
    <label>6.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Cárdenas J. J., García A., Romeral J. L., et al.  Evolutive ANFIS training for energy load profile forecast  for an IEMS in an automated factory. ETFA. 2011. P.  1–8. doi: 10.1109/ETFA.2011.6059079.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Cárdenas J. J., García A., Romeral J. L., et al.  Evolutive ANFIS training for energy load profile forecast  for an IEMS in an automated factory. ETFA. 2011. P.  1–8. doi: 10.1109/ETFA.2011.6059079.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B7">
    <label>7.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Zhou Y., Guo S., Chang F. Explore an evolutionary  recurrent ANFIS for modelling multi-step-ahead flood  forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, 2019.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Zhou Y., Guo S., Chang F. Explore an evolutionary  recurrent ANFIS for modelling multi-step-ahead flood  forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, 2019.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B8">
    <label>8.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Wei C., Chen T. and Lee S. k-­NN Based Neurofuzzy System for Time Series Prediction, 2013 14th ACIS  International Conference on Software Engineering,  Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/ Distributed Computing. 2013. P. 569–574. DOI:  10.1109/SNPD.2013.68.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Wei C., Chen T. and Lee S. k-­NN Based Neurofuzzy System for Time Series Prediction, 2013 14th ACIS  International Conference on Software Engineering,  Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/ Distributed Computing. 2013. P. 569–574. DOI:  10.1109/SNPD.2013.68.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B9">
    <label>9.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Pousinho H. M.I., Mendes V.M. F., Catalão J. P. S. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind  power prediction in Portugal, Energy Conversion and  Management. 2011. Vol. 52, iss. 1. P. 397–402. ISSN  0196–8904.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Pousinho H. M.I., Mendes V.M. F., Catalão J. P. S. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind  power prediction in Portugal, Energy Conversion and  Management. 2011. Vol. 52, iss. 1. P. 397–402. ISSN  0196–8904.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B10">
    <label>10.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Zeng, A., Chen, M., Zhang, L., et al. Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting? AAAI  Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2022. DOI:  10.48550/arXiv.2205.13504</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Zeng, A., Chen, M., Zhang, L., et al. Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting? AAAI  Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2022. DOI:  10.48550/arXiv.2205.13504</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
  </ref-list>
 </back>
</article>
