Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Purpose: The suburban rail transport operation requires taking into account seasonal irregularities in passenger flows. Although a strong correlation between monthly passenger flows and average monthly air temperature was revealed earlier, it is less pronounced on some routes than on others. The study has been carried out to find out what causes the weak correlation on certain suburban routes and to define the weather impact areas on monthly traffic volumes. Methods: The research is based on the statistical reports of transportation companies such as JSC "North-Western Suburban Passenger Company" and LLC "Southern Suburban Passenger Company". The possible relationship between monthly passenger flows and the average monthly air temperature are investigated. Correlation analysis methods and MS Excel tools are used for data processing. The correlation coefficients are considered in combination with the coefficients of monthly unevenness. Results: The dependence of the monthly traffic irregularities on the correlation intensity between monthly passenger flows and the average monthly air temperature during the year has been established. The application area of the correlation between the average monthly air temperature and monthly passenger flows has been specified. The suburban routes classification has been proposed based on the factors effecting traffic volumes strongly. Practical significance: With a view to predicting, passenger flow changes are more advisable to describe based on a smaller number of factors, so as the prediction errors shall be fewer. For this purpose, the routes are categorised into ‘working’ and ‘recreational’ ones, as for each of them a different set of factors should be taken into consideration when making predictive equations or models. The correlation analysis between average monthly air temperature and monthly passenger flows can be useful when a geographical location makes it difficult to determine the type of destination.
Irregularities (unevenness), suburban transportation, average monthly temperature, circular migration, recreational area, passenger flow, correlation dependence
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