Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
To identify the potential application of transport and urban planning modelling methods to rationalize sub-centre locations within a polycentric model of urban development. To present numeric criteria for the potential urban centre locations depending on the average travel time as well as to develop a district grading system based on these criteria. To estimate the population growth rate in the city residential districts with increasing average travel time on the example of St. Petersburg agglomeration. To rank the investigated residential districts in terms of their sub-centre organizational efficiency. Methods: Mathematical modelling, large volume data processing methods, geo-information analysis methods. Results: The methods used in modern transport models for calculating zone-to-zone matrices have been analyzed. A hypothesis is proposed to determine the level of urban areas’ self-sufficiency for creating sub-centres within them. Numerical criteria for the potential urban centre placement depending on the average travel time have been developed, and a district ranking system based on these criteria is proposed. The solution of the problem of determining the feasibility of sub-centres within a city has been tested on the example of St. Petersburg agglomeration. The conclusions on the possibility of using mathematical modelling methods to justify the sub-centre placement in cities and agglomerations based on the proposed numerical criteria are formulated. Practical significance: The results obtained can be used for expanding the range of project solutions applying methods of transport and urban planning modelling. The developed approaches and criteria can be used in the design solutions as part of city area development strategies and concepts in terms of substantiating the possibility of organizing a polycentric model.
Transport modelling, agglomeration, polycentric model, zone-to-zone matrices, transport demand, entropy maximization
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