Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations

Leonid Baranov; Anton Anohin; Il&#039;ya Zherebyatin; Yuncyan Chzhan

doi:10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246

UDC 004.89

FORECASTING RANDOM PROCESSES IN INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS WITH SINGULAR PERTURBATIONS Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations

АА Аа

Published in Transport automation research · Volume 9, Issue 3 · Pages 239–246 · Rubric: INTELLIGENT CONTROL SYSTEMS

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246

Received: 08.09.2023 Accepted: 09.09.2023 Published: 09.09.2023

Authors

Leonid Baranov

Anton Anohin

Il'ya Zherebyatin

Yuncyan Chzhan

Leonid Baranov

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Russian University of Transport (MIIT) Russian Federation · Moscow

Anton Anohin

Russian University of Transport (MIIT) Student · Department of Management and Protection of Information · Russian Federation · Moscow

Il'ya Zherebyatin

Russian University of Transport (MIIT) Student · Department of Management and Protection of Information · Russian Federation · Moscow

Yuncyan Chzhan

Russian University of Transport (MIIT) Postgraduate Student · Department of Management and Protection of Information · Russian Federation · Moscow

ABSTRACT

Forecasting random perturbations allows improving the control quality in intelligent transport systems and ensuring the efficient operation of diagnostic systems. Several works are known where extrapolator models based on Chebyshev polynomials orthogonal on equidistant points are presented. These models use a predictive polynomial whose coefficients are computed using the least squares criterion. Additionally, an analysis of forecast errors for random stationary input signals has been conducted. At the same time, in the case of non-stationary input signals, singular perturbations may occur, the influence of which on the extrapolator leads to significant forecast errors. This article presents an example of the occurrence of additive perturbations that arise in automatic train control systems. An analytical expression has been derived, and calculations of forecast error magnitudes in the presence of singular perturbations have been conducted. The analysis of the calculation results allows determining the influence of extrapolator parameters on the forecast error magnitude, highlighting the necessity of detecting singular perturbations, and excluding their influence on the forecast error magnitude. The article discusses an algorithm for detecting singular perturbations and their exclusion during the forecasting process. The conclusion is drawn about the effectiveness of using extrapolators for random perturbations with the exclusion of singular perturbations in intelligent systems for automatic train control in subway transportation.

KEYWORDS

forecasting, extrapolators, forecast errors, random perturbations, singular perturbations, detection of singular perturbations, algorithm, intelligent system, automatic control, subway trains

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GOST

Baranov L. A., Anohin A. S., Zherebyatin I. A., Chzhan Y. Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations // Transport automation research. 2023. no. 3. pp. 239-246. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246. (Date of access 25.09.2026).

MLA

Leonid Baranov, Anohin A. S., Zherebyatin I. A., Chzhan Y.. "Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations." Transport automation research 9.3 (2023): 239-246. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246.

APA

Baranov L. A., Anohin A. S., Zherebyatin I. A., Chzhan Y. (2023). Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations. Transport automation research, 9(3), 239-246. https://doi.org/10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246

Chicago

Leonid Baranov, Anohin A. S., Zherebyatin I. A., Chzhan Y.. "Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations." Transport automation research 9, no. 3 (2023): 239-246. https://doi.org/10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Baranov L. A., Anohin A. S., Zherebyatin I. A., Chzhan Y. | title = Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations | journal = Transport automation research | year = 2023 | volume = 9 | issue = 3 | pages = 239-246 | doi = 10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246 }}

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FORECASTING RANDOM PROCESSES IN INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS WITH SINGULAR PERTURBATIONS Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations

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