An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects

Aleksandr Pavlov; Valentin N. Vorotyagin

doi:10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45

VAK Russia 2.3.1 UDC 519.7

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AN APPROACH TO PREDICTIVE DIGITAL TWIN MODELLING OF COMPLEX MULTMODE OBJECTS An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects

АА Аа

Published in Intellectual Technologies on Transport · Pages 37–45 · Rubric: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AND SYSTEM ANALYSIS

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45 · EDN: WSCTAA

Received: 17.02.2025 Accepted: 02.03.2025 Published: 24.03.2025

Authors

Aleksandr Pavlov

Valentin N. Vorotyagin

Aleksandr Pavlov

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Mozhaisky Military Aerospace Academy Professor · Department of Automated Control Systems Space Complexes · Russian Federation · St. Petersburg

St. Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Senior Researcher · Laboratory for Information Technologies in Systems Analysis and Modeling · Russian Federation · St. Petersburg

Valentin N. Vorotyagin

Academic degree: candidate of technical sciences

Mozhaisky Military Aerospace Academy Senior Lecturer · Department of Technologies and Automation of Information Processing and Analysis of Space Assets · Russian Federation · St. Petersburg

ABSTRACT

The development of modelling tools is a key factor in the creation and implementation of intelligent (predictive) digital twins. As a rule, many complex objects (CO) are multi-mode, i.e. a priori they have the property of non-monotony. Changes in the content of the goals and tasks required from the object, as well as the destructive effects of the external environment, lead to uncertainty in the CO functioning, which is associated with the intensity and nature of their various modes of operation. Purpose: the stated above situation requires a new approach to the study of multimode non-monotonic systems in conditions of significant uncertainty. Results: the object operation modes in the form of vertices of functional integrity schemes of the general logical-probabilistic method (GLPM) of calculus shows that the functional structure of a multi-mode object becomes non-monotonic. This situation, as well as lack of knowledge about the intensity and nature of these modes’ use, required the authors to develop a model-algorithmic superstructure over the GLPM. It is based on the concept of a parametric genome of functional structures of multi-mode CO. Practical significance: the proposed approach made it possible to evaluate the indicators of structural and functional reliability and sustainability of such objects in the absence of knowledge about their operating mode cyclograms. Based on the approach outlined in the article, it is necessary to develop new methods that allow monitoring and management of CO operating modes.

KEYWORDS

digital twin, multimode object, functional integrity scheme, non-monotonic system, parametric genome

Funding

Issledovanie vypolneno za schet granta Rossiyskogo nauchnogo fonda № 24-29-00706

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Anatoly Khomonenko

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Deputy Editor-in-Chief

Lesya Bozhko

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Maksim Orzhevsky

206@it-pgups.ru

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GOST

Pavlov A. N., Vorotyagin V. N. An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects // Intellectual Technologies on Transport. 2025. no. 1. pp. 37-45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45. EDN: WSCTAA. (Date of access 17.09.2026).

MLA

Aleksandr Pavlov, Vorotyagin V. N.. "An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects." Intellectual Technologies on Transport.1 (2025): 37-45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45. EDN: WSCTAA.

APA

Pavlov A. N., Vorotyagin V. N. (2025). An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects. Intellectual Technologies on Transport(1), 37-45. https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45 EDN: WSCTAA.

Chicago

Aleksandr Pavlov, Vorotyagin V. N.. "An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects." Intellectual Technologies on Transport, no. 1 (2025): 37-45. https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45. EDN: WSCTAA.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Pavlov A. N., Vorotyagin V. N. | title = An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects | journal = Intellectual Technologies on Transport | year = 2025 | issue = 1 | pages = 37-45 | doi = 10.20295/2413-2527-2025-141-37-45 }} EDN: WSCTAA

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AN APPROACH TO PREDICTIVE DIGITAL TWIN MODELLING OF COMPLEX MULTMODE OBJECTS An Approach to Predictive Digital Twin Modelling of Complex Multmode Objects

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