Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century

Petr Gerasimenko

doi:10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81

VAK Russia 1.2.2 UDC 314.3 UDC 51

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MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND FORECASTING OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE XXI CENTURY Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century

АА Аа

Published in Intellectual Technologies on Transport · Issue 3, 2026 · Pages 72–81 · Rubric: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AND SYSTEM ANALYSIS

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81 · EDN: QLAYKY

Received: 29.08.2026 Accepted: 30.08.2026 Published: 01.10.2026

Authors

Petr Gerasimenko

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University Professor · “Economics and Management in Construction” Department · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ABSTRACT

Mathematical modeling and short-term forecasting of the number of children born in the Russian Federation in the XXI century have been carried out. Purpose: to meet a significant demand in decision‑making practice related to addressing social issues. Methods: modeling was performed using linear functions. Mathematical models were constructed using time series and regression analysis; the “Regression” tool from the MS Excel analysis package was used. Results: the modeling process, based on statistical data and traditional mathematical probabilistic and statistical methods, made it possible to carry out high‑quality short‑term forecasting. For the time series, static data from Rosstat were used, covering the period from 1992 to 2024. The model was verified based on the number of children born in 2025. The quality of the constructed model was assessed using the approximation error, correlation and determination coefficients, the Fisher statistic value, and verification. Practical significance: lies in conducting a comparative analysis of the number of births at the end of the current decade and over the same period at the beginning of the 21st century, which confirms the current critical demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

KEYWORDS

demography, model, point and interval forecasting, probability, age, birth rate

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GOST

Gerasimenko P. V. Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century // Intellectual Technologies on Transport. 2026. no. 3. pp. 72-81. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81. EDN: QLAYKY. (Date of access 04.11.2026).

MLA

Petr Gerasimenko. "Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century." Intellectual Technologies on Transport.3 (2026): 72-81. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81. EDN: QLAYKY.

APA

Gerasimenko P. V. (2026). Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century. Intellectual Technologies on Transport(3), 72-81. https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81 EDN: QLAYKY.

Chicago

Petr Gerasimenko. "Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century." Intellectual Technologies on Transport, no. 3 (2026): 72-81. https://doi.org/10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81. EDN: QLAYKY.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Gerasimenko P. V. | title = Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century | journal = Intellectual Technologies on Transport | year = 2026 | issue = 3 | pages = 72-81 | doi = 10.20295/2413-2527-2026-347-72-81 }} EDN: QLAYKY

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MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND FORECASTING OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE XXI CENTURY Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Federation in the XXI Century

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